Skip to main content

Impact of School Closures on COVID-19

 How Have School Closures and Behavioral Changes Affected the Pandemic?
    This month marks one year since the start of the pandemic and the shut down of schools in the United States. Almost all schools were  remote from the March-June 2020 school year and depending on their district and location, some schools have reopened in Fall 2020 while others remain remote and/or plan to transition to hybrid learning in the next few months. Nonetheless, there has been much controversy over the reopening of schools and its effects on the health and safety of students and teachers. Some argue that children need to return to in-person learning to receive optimal education while others believe it is too dangerous for schools to reopen in the midst of a pandemic. A recent study published on February 22, 2021 in The Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) Pediatrics, uses real-life data to analyze the impact of school closures and voluntary behavioral changes, such as less time spent at work, on the COVID-19 pandemic. The main ideas are summarized below.

About the Study

    COVID-19 data was taken from the New York Times during a 60-day period from March 8-May 18, 2020. This data was compared with pre-COVID baseline data from January 3-February 6, 2020, right before the pandemic. Researchers wanted to determine the effects of legal restrictions, such as school closures, on the pandemic in comparison to voluntary behavioral changes. Proxies for behavioral changes used in this study included time spent at work, time spent at home, searches for the term hand sanitizer, and dining at restaurants. Data for these measures were obtained from cell phone and internet data at the state level.

Study Results: School Closures vs. Behavioral Changes

    For each day earlier that a school was closed, there was an associated 3.5% reduction in COVID-19 cases. Meanwhile, each day earlier a behavioral change occurred was associated with a 9.3% reduction of COVID-19 cases. In regards to COVID-19 mortality, each day earlier school closures occurred was associated with a 3.8% reduction while each day earlier a behavioral change occurred was associated with a 9.8% reduction. Researchers estimate that a 2-week delay in school closures would be associated in an additional 587,000 cases and 28,000 deaths whereas a 2-week delay in behavioral changes would be associated with an additional 4,300,000 cases and 140,000 deaths.

Study Results: Behavioral Changes Trend

    A wide variation in behavior was observed in each state. The rate of dining at restaurants decreased by an average of 98.3% during the study period and decreased 100% since the previous year. Time spent at work decreased by an average of 40% during the study period and a maximum of 60% since the pre-COVID baseline. Meanwhile, time spent at home increased an average of 15.4% and a maximum of 26% since the pre-COVID baseline. These behavioral changes were observed to be "about halfway to its full extent" by the time mandated school closures began across the 50 states. Some behavioral changes were also well-under way or fully realized before other policy changes, such as the closing of businesses, took place. For example, restaurant dining reduced from 50% to 100% before any restaurant closure policies took effect. (See below). What's more is that all behavioral changes observed in this study started to take place before the authorization of school closures (See below). That being said, voluntary behavior is connected to the closing of schools in complex ways; the two variables are not always in direct correlation. School closures and voluntary behavioral changes are also both independent variables and the concurrent occurrence of the two events could complicate the data.

Study Implications

    Although both voluntary behavioral changes, such as spending more time at home, and school closures reduce COVID-19 numbers, the study suggests that voluntary behavioral changes have a much larger impact on COVID-19 cases and deaths than school closures. In the words of the authors of the study, "school closures are a blunt instrument for achieving reductions in the spread of any pandemic." As a result, policy makers should focus on encouraging and requiring behavioral changes such as social distancing, wearing masks, and staying at home. This study also further emphasizes the impact and importance of public behavior in regards to the coronavirus; do your part to help slow the spread by limiting physical contact, wearing masks, and educating yourself and others about the virus!

Sources

1. Zimmerman, Frederick J, and Nathaniel W Anderson. “Association of the Timing of School Closings and Behavioral Changes With the Evolution of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic in the US.” Jama Pediactrics, 22 Feb. 2021, doi:10.1001/jamapediatrics.2020.6371.

 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Efficacy of Masks

Do Wearing Masks Really Prevent Coronavirus            For weeks, U.S. health authorities discouraged healthy Americans from wearing masks, believing they would do more harm than good. However, other countries such as China and South Korea have required all citizens to wear a mask when entering a public setting to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. But really how effective are these masks against the coronavirus? On April 3rd, Nature Medicine published an article describing their findings based off an experiment testing the efficacy of surgical face masks against coronavirus, influenza virus and rhinovirus.   Study Findings      Their results demonstrated that surgical masks were largely effective in reducing coronavirus transmission through respiratory droplets as well as aerosol particles. Three out of ten people who did not wear a mask were infected with the coronavirus through droplet particles. Out of eleven people w...
1 comment
Read more

Breakthrough Infections

 COVID-19 Breakthrough Infections     As of August 2021, a little over 50% of the U.S. population has been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. However, despite the increasing number of vaccinated individuals and high efficacy of the vaccines, rare breakthrough cases have occurred. With the reports of breakthrough cases, or instances when people who are fully vaccinated get infected with COVID-19, many questions have arisen. How common are breakthrough infections? What are the symptoms? How severe are the cases? These questions are addressed in a peer-reviewed study investigating breakthrough cases among healthcare workers in Israel. The study was recently published in the New England Journal of Medicine on July 28, 2021.  About the Study     The study setting took place in the Sheba Medical Center, which is the largest medical center in Israel staffed with 12,586 healthcare workers. By April 28, 2021, 11,453 workers (91%) had been fully vaccinated with the ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Plasma for COVID-19 treatment

FDA Authorizes Plasma for COVID-19 Treatment                     COVID-19, which has been spreading across the globe since March, has affected the lives of Americans for over six months. Many people, including the President, are eager to eliminate the virus after a dreadful 6 months of rising cases and quarantine. To their dismay, hopes of eliminating the virus by Easter and then by August, seemed to turn into an unreachable dream for Americans. With cases rising and no sure vaccine or treatment for the virus, a future without COVID-19 seemed further and further away. Yet, this Sunday on August 23, 2020, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorized the first treatment for COVID-19: convalescent plasma. While the plasma has only been authorized for emergency use, many people see this authorization as progress towards eliminating the virus. However, others believe that the plasma is not as effective, and that the FDA was pres...
Post a Comment
Read more